Probability of development

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The probability of development predicts the likelihood of development between 2010 and 2080. A model of urban growth that accounts for the intensity, amount, and spatial pattern of development was used to generate this layer. It uses county-level predictions for development from a U.S. Forest Service 2010 Resources Planning Act assessment. The type and pattern of development is based on models of historical development and is influenced by factors such as slope, proximity to open water, existing secured lands, and distance to roads and urban centers. It can be used to identify areas that may be at risk for future development.

View this product as a web map on Data Basin.

Access this data as a GIS download from the North Atlantic LCC website.

Read the Technical Abstract for this data layer (probDevelop.tif).

Regional vulnerability of conductance

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The regional vulnerability of connectivity layer depicts the likelihood of development occurring in places that are important for connectivity between terrestrial cores. It is derived in part from the probability of development layer and the regional conductance index. This layer highlights areas that may serve as corridors of ecologically similar areas with currently low levels of development, that have a high probability of development in the future. It is created after the core areas and connectors, and should be used in conjunction with the core-connector layer at a minimum.

View this product as a web map on Data Basin.

Access this data as a GIS download from the North Atlantic LCC website.

Read the Technical Abstract for this data layer (rVulnerable.tif).

Local vulnerability of conductance

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The Local vulnerability of conductance layer depicts the likelihood of development occurring in places that are important for connectivity, independent of the terrestrial core-connectivity network. It is calculated based on the local conductance index and the probability of development layer.

This layer allows for comparison of vulnerability across different locations within the watershed, and highlights areas that may be important for local connectivity that are currently undeveloped or have little development, but are likely to be further developed in the future. This layer is created independently of the core areas, and can be used either on its own or in conjunction with the core area layers. By contrast, regional vulnerability of conductance applies only to connectivity between core areas.

View this product as a web map on Data Basin.

Access this data as a GIS download from the North Atlantic LCC website.

Read the Technical Abstract for this data layer (lVulnerable.tif).

Climate stress

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Climate stress is a measure of the decrease in climate suitability for a given ecological system at a particular cell, based on climate projections for 2080. For each ecological system present in the watershed, the climate niche of that system was calculated. The projected climate in 2080 is then compared to that climate niche. The projected climate in 2080 is based on the average climate for two IPCC climate change scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. If climate suitability improves, the cell is considered “not stressed.” If climate suitability declines, then the metric value is larger the more the future climate is projected to diverge from climate conditions where the ecological system currently occurs. Climate stress was calculated for each ecological system individually, so it is recommended that users view this data layer for one ecological system at a time, and do not attempt to compare values across ecological systems.

View this product as a web map on Data Basin.

Access this data as a GIS download from the North Atlantic LCC website.

Read the Technical Abstract for this data layer (climate.tif).

Sea level rise

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The sea level rise metric is an index of the likelihood that a site impacted by sea level rise will be resilient and adaptive or not. Rob Thieler, Erika Lentz, and others at the USGS lab at Woods Hole developed a model for sea level rise that was adapted by the UMass DSL team for this project. The sea level projections used were based on an average of the projections from two IPCC climate change scenarios for the year 2080: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Resiliency to sea level rise is defined as whether a site is projected to be inundated by salt water, or can respond dynamically so that it does not become submerged (e.g., a tidal marsh that accretes sediment quickly enough to stay above the level of the sea).  In the latter case the site is considered less stressed by sea level rise.

View this product as a web map on Data Basin.

Access this data as a GIS download from the North Atlantic LCC website.

Read the Technical Abstract for this data layer (seaRise.tif).

Aquatic core vulnerability to development

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Aquatic core vulnerability to development is an index that measures the likelihood of development in areas that may impact the aquatic cores. It is based on the aquatic buffers and the future probability of development (between 2010 and 2080). Areas with little influence on the aquatic cores have low vulnerability regardless of how likely they are to be developed. Areas with high influence on the aquatic cores, such as uplands in close proximity to aquatic cores, that also have a high probability of future development, receive high scores on the index.

View this product as a web map on Data Basin.

Access this data as a GIS download from the North Atlantic LCC website.

Read the Technical Abstract for this data layer (aVulnerable.tif).

Brook trout climate response

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This data layer is based on information from the USGS Conte Anadromous Fish Lab (Ben Letcher group). It is the average of the current and future probability of brook trout occurrence. It is intended to indicate where, within cool and cold headwater creeks, brook trout are projected to occur now and into the future.

View this product as a web map on Data Basin.

Access this data as a GIS download from the North Atlantic LCC website.

Read the Technical Abstract for this data layer (brookTroutCR2080.shp).